Forecasting Forest Futures: A Hybrid Modelling Approach to the Assessment of Sustainability of Forest Ecosystems and their values.

Kimmins J.P., Blanco J.A., Seely B., Welham C., Scoullar K. 2010. Earthscan, London. UK.

Order your copy today from Earthscan

Six prestigious scientists and forest modellers give their opinions about the book.

On-line book material - A selection of software, presentations, posters, movies and additional material in support of the new book are ready for downloading.

         New book"Forest Ecosystem: more than just trees". Get it for free!

         New paper on quantifiying Old-Growth attributes in BC forests (Canadian Journal of Forest Research) by Dr. Brad Seely and collaborators.

         New papers [1,2] on modelling the effects of atmospheric pollution in Chinese forests, by Dr. Juan A. Blanco and collaborators.

         New paper on studying the reduction of productivity in Vanocuver Island forests after harvesting, by Dr.Brad Seely and collaborators.

         New book chapter on studying the influence of natural disturbance on boreal forests, by Dr. Wei and Dr. Kimmins.

Dr. Hamish Kimmins Doctorate Honoris Causa from the University of Quebec at Montreal in recognition to his achievements on forest ecology and lifelong contribution to scientific and teaching excellence.

The UBC Forest Ecosystem Simulation Research Group is working on developing a number of different forest ecosystem models and management tools with which to make long-term projections of forest conditions and values that may result from different ways of managing today's forests.



Visitors to our website since

July 2011

  • FOREST ECOSYSTEM MODELS AND TOOLS - Landscape level, stand level, and spatially-explicit individual tree models and forest management simulation tools.
  • RESEARCH PROJECTS - Projects from the B.C. Kootenays, the Alberta Oil Sands, Saskatchewan mixedwoods, Chinese fir forests and Cuban plantations.
  • PUBLICATIONS - Model descriptions, book chapters, journal publications, PhD and MSc thesis and other reports.
  • RESEARCH TEAM - Chair, research associates, and graduate students.
  • PRESENTATIONS - A selection of presentations given by the team members at different scientific meetings

The Forest Ecosystem Management Simulation Research Group works to develop and apply computer-based ecosystem models for forest management applications. Hamish Kimmins at the University of British Columbia heads the research team, which continues to develop a number of forest ecosystem models designed to inform forest management decisions and facilitate sustainable forestry.
Stewardship of our forests is a delicate balance. Values of recreation and other "non-consumptive" uses must be considered in relation to the increasing demand for forest products. These challenges are further compounded by the fact that decisions made in the present economic and social climate will serve as a legacy to future generations.

How then do we ensure that our actions indeed represent an appropriate balance between competing demands? What is sustainable forestry and how is this concept reconcilable with the developing standards of certification? How will a changing climate affect future forest growth and hence our concept of sustainability? To address these questions, we need tools with which to make long-term projections of forest conditions and values that may result from different ways of managing today's forests.

Our group is currently developing a number of different forest ecosystem models. FORECAST is a stand-level forest ecosystem model. FORCEE is an explicit spatial representation of ecosystem processes and individual trees. HORIZON is a GIS model with ecologically based polygon updates and interaction. L.L.E.M.S. is a landscape level ecosystem management simulation model. And PRESTO is a plant regeneration simulation tool.